Summary of Survival Model

What is Survival Model ?

 

Actually Survival Model is a Probability Model in order to find of the Probability of life.

 

Normally we use statistic method and the past data to create a Survival Model. Usually Survival Model is created based on past data and the using  Kaplan Meier Curve method  in order to build a Survival Model.

 

When we have Survival Model created, so we can find for example for people at the age of 24 could survive after 5 years. When we have a model created, we can find any probability of survival of any age, for example again, we could find the probability that the baby who is just born will be survive until at the age of 24.

 

In short note, that is Statistic Method, we should have past data, and then use the Kaplan-Meier Curve Method to build a Survival Model...

 

 

Ocay, that`s all a little bit about the Survival Model...

 

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Financial Mathematics

 

Today I want to share about Financial Mathematics with you all...

 

Ocay, What is Financial Mathematics ? Actually Financial Mathematics is a way for the Banks in its calculation of any loan or for its investment products.

 

Actually, in Financial Mathematics, we have learnt that for the price of, for example, the price of a car is a $80000, then we want to make a loan with the bank for amount of $80000. Then, we want to make a loan for ten years with the rate of the interest of the bank is as much as 4% a year. So we want to know how much should we pay every month with the interest of 4% a year as much as 10 years. How much should we pay a month ?

 

In a short note, we use Financial Mathematics method to calculate the installment for every month of the car.

 

In a investment, for example, one company offer a dividen as much as 6% a year if we invest our money with their company. Ocay, if we invest one time for $10000, how much it is of our money accumulate after 10 years ? In this situation, we also use Financial Mathematics to calculate our money after 10 years investment.

 

Second example is, if we invest $100 a month with 6% a year as dividen, how much will be of our money to be accumulated after 20 years. In this situation, we also use Financial Mathematics to calculate of our money after 20 years.

 

In a short note, Financial Mathematics is an about of interest and dividen. Hehehehe...

 

Ocay, that`s all for today my beloved friends... Happy reading.... =)

 

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Summary 3 of Statistic

Hi all...Hopefully you are in a good health...

 

Today I want to share about last part of Statistic that I have learnt in Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia.

 

The topic is about the Prediction, not a probability but a Prediction..

 

Ocay, what is the difference between Probability and Prediction ?

 

Actually the Probability is a chance of something to be a value that we want AND the Prediction is the value of something after we have analyzed it, for example in the next month, the sales of our company will be as $100000 as a prediction we have analyzed it.

 

Ocay, we can find the Probability the sales in the next month will be as $100000. Based on the past data, we got the Probability to get sales as much as $100000 is 0.76 or 76%. So, the Prediction is $100000 and the Probability is 0.76. Hopefully you all will see the difference between the Probability and Prediction.

 

For Prediction, we usually use a Regression Method. For example, we want to know the prediction of Composite Index of the next day based on the Plantation Index today and the Mining Index today.

For example :

Y = Index Composite of the next day

X = Plantation Index today

Z = Mining Index today

 

So, through this analysis, we want to know are there existed the relation between Y, X and Z.

 

So we make the regression analysis and for example we got there have relation between Y and X and Z and for example the value of it we got as :

Y = 0.41X + 0.13Z

So we can predict Y right  =)

Ocay, that`s all for today....

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Summary of Statistic 2

 

Hi, have a great day today...

 

In this day I want to share of Statistic again but the topics is about how we want to calculate the probability of mean, proportion and variance.

 

What is the mean meaning ? Actually mean is an average.

 

Normally we find the probability of some data like the marks of student. For example the probability of the marks of student getting A in examination.

 

But In this topic, we would like to find the probability of the marks average of student getting score 50% and above. Not the probability of one student getting score 50% and above but the probability of average of marks of the student getting score 50% and above.

 

It is same to proportion and variance. We use Sample Distribution to find the probability of the Mean, Proportion and Variance.

 

Ocay, that`s all for today...

 

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Summary of Statistic 1

 

What is Statistic ?

 

Actually, Statistic is a mathematical method to find probability of something and also to predict of something like stock exchange or anything that have a data so that we can predict it.

 

The way to calculate of Statistic Method is we usually use calculation of Calculus.

 

There has two category of function, one is Discrete Function and one more is Continuous Function to find the probability of something.

 

For Discrete Function we have :

1)    Binomial Distribution

2)    Geometric Distribution

3)    Negative Binomial Distribution

4)    Hypergeometric Distribution

5)    Poison Distribution

 

For Continuous Function we have :

1)    Uniform Distribution

2)    Normal Distribution

3)    Gamma Distribution

4)    Beta Distribution

 

 

What is Distribution ?

Actually Distribution is a behaviour of some category data and each Distribution have its method of calculation to find the probability, mean, and variance. Actually each Distribution is a behaviour of something category data that analyzed by Mathematicians so long ago and give the results of something category of data. For example, if we want to analyze or find the probability of A category data, we use Z Distribution, and for category data of B, we use V Distribution. To get knowing of the data follow of what Distribution, there has a few Conditions and for example we can use Binomial Distribution if the situation and data are in the Conditions of Binomial Distribution.

 

That`s all for today..In another article, I will share about Statistic also, but is in the Sample Topic of Statistic.

 

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Summary of Calculus Subject that taught in University Level ( One of Main Subject of Actuary)

 

Firstly, I would like to share what is a Calculus method that actuary learn to create insurance product. Actually Calculus is a calculation method in Statistic in order to find the probability or prediction of the something that we want to know.

 

It is about Differentiation Method and Integration Method and also how to calculate the function of probability whether it is Discret Function or Continuos Function. What I have learnt is about how to calculate of probability whether it is Discret Function or Continuous Function. For Discrete Function, we usually used of plus (+) and minus (-) method. And for Continuous Function, we usually used the Differentiation and Integration Method.

 

In this part, we also learnt about how to calculate the mixture function, which is some part it is in Discret Function and another part is in Continuous Function.

 

What is the Function meaning ? Actually, the Function meaning is the probability.

 

That`s all for today... Thank you for reading..

 

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My Story of Long Time of Not Writing this Blog

Last October 2018, I was attacked by one odd disease that I don`t know what is it. I can not walk urgently, when I tried to stand up, I cann`t. What happen to my leg, what is the matter I thought. Then, I being rilex and try to stand up, but this time I tried to stand up by cling to the chair and it`s work! Great, but still not satisfied why I cann`t stand up and work. Then, I tried to walk and fall down to the floor. I told my mother, and she said to try sorting by traditional practiser in healthy. I tried for one night sorted by practiser of healthy but it still can not walk.

After a few days, my family decided to admit me to the hospital. When I met a Doctor, firstly, she guessed that I was attacked by GBS disease which in long name, it is called as Guillane Barre Syndrom which is our muscle will changed from strong to weaker from normal.  I was admitted to ward and being poke via needle by a nurse and transfer the medicine to my body. In short note that I noticed by a Doctor is GBS disease actually the disease which is caused by a changing of our antibody to the virus (can be regarded it) that attacked my body. In short note, my antibody has changed to be bad and was attacked my body.

I was admitted to the hospital  for5  days and at the evening of the 5^th day, I was consented by a Doctor to back home. I can not stand up which is also cann`t walk. From the ward to my father`s car, I was bringed on the wheelchair.

My younger brother buy for me a stick in hopes that I can stand up and walk eventhough by a stick. After a few days at home with eating the medicine from Doctor, the day comes which is the day that I need to go to hospital and doing fisiotheraphy by the Doctor. The Doctor ask me to doing the specific training as the training is the training in hopes that I can walk again.

I was walking by hands for three months, then I tried to stand up by cling to a chair and it is working.  I could stand up, that`s has made my heart happy. Then, I sat down back. After a few days, I tried to walk and tried to walk with stick and it started  giving a positive results.  In a month, I could walk without stick but my body is not strong as normal. My energy is at the lowest measure. From the Doctor said, it will take a long time to recover 100% and it can be 2, 3, or 4 years or I maybe can not recover 100% back. But I still thanked to my God of giving me walking again.

That`s all about my story about before this. Hopefully, it will give you a knowledge about GBS.

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