Summary 3 of Statistic

Hi all...Hopefully you are in a good health...

 

Today I want to share about last part of Statistic that I have learnt in Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia.

 

The topic is about the Prediction, not a probability but a Prediction..

 

Ocay, what is the difference between Probability and Prediction ?

 

Actually the Probability is a chance of something to be a value that we want AND the Prediction is the value of something after we have analyzed it, for example in the next month, the sales of our company will be as $100000 as a prediction we have analyzed it.

 

Ocay, we can find the Probability the sales in the next month will be as $100000. Based on the past data, we got the Probability to get sales as much as $100000 is 0.76 or 76%. So, the Prediction is $100000 and the Probability is 0.76. Hopefully you all will see the difference between the Probability and Prediction.

 

For Prediction, we usually use a Regression Method. For example, we want to know the prediction of Composite Index of the next day based on the Plantation Index today and the Mining Index today.

For example :

Y = Index Composite of the next day

X = Plantation Index today

Z = Mining Index today

 

So, through this analysis, we want to know are there existed the relation between Y, X and Z.

 

So we make the regression analysis and for example we got there have relation between Y and X and Z and for example the value of it we got as :

Y = 0.41X + 0.13Z

So we can predict Y right  =)

Ocay, that`s all for today....

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